Outbreaks of virulent African swine fever (ASF) in China – the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork protein – have decimated the country’s hog herds. Eruptions of the deadly disease in Europe are also disrupting worldwide pork markets. Netherlands-based Rabobank, a global leader in food and agriculture financing services, last spring estimated China would cull its pig population from 360 million a year ago to 200 million.

Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), noted at the Agricultural Business Council of Kansas City’s August meeting that culling was already underway. He said the Chinese began liquidating its swineherd and freezing the meat last March, adding that “shortages will be apparent soon.”  The implication is China will encounter severe domestic and consumer disruptions which could bring China to the table for serious trade talks.

USMEF economist Eric Borror said last year that the U.S., which has never had an outbreak of ASF, is well-positioned in most global markets, and its hog sector could step in quickly to fill China’s shortfall in production.  But experts say that is no reason to be complacent.

Robert Jones, Ph.D., president of Brakke Consulting, wrote in Brakke Consulting News (September 6, 2019) that USDA has awarded exclusive ASF vaccine technology patent licenses to Zoetis and Huvepharma. But he asked, “Shouldn’t we be hearing more frequently about ASF vaccine development?”